Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Fish and Fish Seed Production in Chhattisgarh, India


Sonvanee O. P.
B Nightingale Devi
Hari Prasad Mohale


Objectives: to study the trend and forecasting of fish & fish seed production in Chhattisgarh, India. Methods: The time-series data on fish production (in metric tonnes) and fish seed production (in lakhs) in Chhattisgarh for a period of 18 years from 2003-04 to 2020-21 was done. The Compound Growth Rates (CGR) of fish and fish seed production in Chhattisgarh was estimated by fitting a log-linear model. ARIMA model was applied for forecasting which includes the identification of model through coding under which p, d, q and estimated the parameters of model, diagnostic checking with respect to reliability of model based on Ljung-Box statistics and forecasting was made as step. This model also called Box-Jenkins model. Findings: In the study, the CGR of fish & fish seed production were found to be (10.72 per cent) and (12.62 per cent) positively significant in Chhattisgarh, which were proved by R2 = 0.93 & 0.89 respectively. Forecasted fish production would be ranging from the minimum 628417.90 metric tonnes in 2021-22 to the maximum 857323.80 metric tonnes in 2025-26. Forecasted fish seed production would be ranging from 31267.17 lakhs to 44053.01 lakhs for the years from 2021-22 to 2025-26. Application/ Novelty: The actual and forecasted fish & fish seed production was in increasing trend, but it was largely shared in total production by limited farmers in Chhattisgarh. The study reported that directly supported in decisionmaking to the policy-maker, researcher, development agencies and extension agencies for increasing large number of person involved in fisheries sector, availability of per capita fish and estimated demand of fish seed.