Dynamics of crime rate, income inequality and urbanization across regimes in Pakistan


Shalil Zaman
Attaullah Khan


Objectives: This study concentrated on the association between crime rate, income-inequality and urbanization for the economy of Pakistan over the period 1973-2017. Interestingly, the study in hand has been discussed two regimes, i.e. democratic and dictatorship, that are almost equally prevalent in the economy. Methods: The study used the ARDL Bound testing approach to examine crime patterns that may be involved in or caused by income inequality and urbanization in Pakistan. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and unit root tests were used to check the stationarity of the data. The series was found to be stationary at mixed levels. This research work makes a number of contributions. First, it discusses how the income inequality and the urbanization are impacting the rate of crime in the economy. Second, the analysis in hand describes the crime rate in various political regimes and analyzes its effect on Pakistan’s economy. Findings: The findings of the descriptive study demonstrate that in democracy, people are more offenders than dictatorships. Whereas, the Bound test result identified a significant relationship both in the short and long run. The result explored that income inequality and urbanization coefficients are strongly positive, which means that the widening income inequalities and rise in urban growth have increased crime rate in the country over the study period. Applications: The government might to make effective initiatives to decrease income inequalities and also to dissuade the factor of urbanization, so that the rate of crime in the country can decline.